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A Word from Grace Street

The Butterfly Effect

July 29, 2009

My Dear People,

Dr. Edward N. Lorenz was an American meteorologist.  While you may well never have heard his name, likely you have heard of a phenomenon that he stumbled upon and ultimately brought to the attention of the world, the so-called "butterfly effect."

In the winter of 1961, Dr. Lorenz was working with a highly complex computer model trying to refine weather predictions.  Having completed a certain weather simulation, he went back to repeat the simulation, only this time he re-started the simulation part way through.  What followed led to Dr. Lorenz's discovery.  Having input the figures from the first run on the simulation, at the desired point in the simulation's unfolding, Dr. Lorenz soon realized that the simulation was now heading in an entirely different direction than it had on its first run.  Initially he thought the program was malfunctioning.  It wasn't.

Reviewing the data that he had input on the simulation re-start, Dr. Lorenz realized that he had inadvertently input the data on the simulation re-start only up to three decimals, versus the six decimal places that the program was capable of, and that, indeed, that difference in input had resulted in an extremely different result.  In other words, a difference of input that amounted to less than 0.1 percent wildly altered the outcome.  Eventually he would present his findings at a scientific gathering in 1972 with a paper entitled, "Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?"  And thus "the butterfly effect" soon entered popular consciousness and parlance. 

Truth is truth.  What goes in science goes in the Spirit.  Our church is situated on Grace Street, in the heart of Richmond.  What happens if a butterfly flaps its wings on Grace Street?  Is a tornado set off on Church Hill, or perhaps in Washington, D.C., or perhaps in Mwitikira, Tanzania?  In other words, we don't know what effects our ministry at St. Paul's Church will have.  We can't possibly predict it.  And yet, in faith, we know that what we do here, on Grace Street, has effects across our city, across the state, and across the world. 

Thanks be to God!,
your brother in Christ,

Wallace+

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